The 2024 U.S. presidential election could potentially feature a heated rematch between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Both men have hinted at running again, setting up a Democratic vs Republican battle between two iconic yet polarizing figures.
This article analyzes Biden and Trump’s strengths and weaknesses heading into 2024 to predict who might prevail in another Biden-Trump face-off.
Biden’s Potential Strengths
Presidents running for reelection typically have built-in advantages over challengers. They can utilize their first term to claim accomplishments, fundraise extensively, and harness the bully pulpit (). Biden would leverage these assets to tout his record.
Democratic Party Support
Despite some dissatisfaction on the left, Biden remains the favorite of mainstream Democrats. He is unlikely to face a major primary challenge as the sitting president. Democrats would unify against arch-nemesis Trump ().
Suburban and Minority Backing
Key Democratic groups like Black, Hispanic, college-educated, and suburban voters broke heavily for Biden in 2020. He could rely on strong turnout from these segments in 2024 ().
Biden enjoyed record-high voter participation in 2020 from Democrats determined to oust Trump. He would aim to continue that energy among the anti-Trump faction ().
Biden’s Potential Weaknesses
Age and Mental Fitness
Biden would be 81 on Election Day 2024, raising unavoidable questions on his mental acuity and stamina (). His frequent gaffes provide easy attack fodder for the GOP. This could turn off independents.
Weak economic conditions often damage incumbent presidents (). Inflation, gas prices, and recession fears have hurt Biden’s approval. A declining economy in 2024 would seriously hamper his reelection bid.
Biden’s pandemic management has received mixed reviews. He may lack a compelling Covid-centric message for 2024 as voters move past the crisis ().
A Divisive Figure
Biden’s favorability ratings have slumped as he becomes more partisan in tone (). Biden was elected as a uniter but has become very polarizing. This could limit his appeal to persuadable swing voters.
Trump’s Potential Strengths in 2024
Trump remains hugely popular with the Republican base despite the 2020 loss (). He continues drawing large crowds at rallies. Trump would be hard to beat in a GOP primary.
Trump has built a massive war chest since losing reelection (). He can self-fund large portions of a campaign. Trump’s fundraising power is a major asset.
America First Agenda
Trump successfully tapped into economic nationalism and anti-immigration sentiment in 2016/2020 (). He would revive arguments about immigration, trade, and foreign policy threats in China/Russia.
Trump is merciless at attacking and defining opponents (). He would energetically lambast Biden’s age, mental state, leftism, and record as president across all platforms.
Trump’s Potential Weaknesses in 2024
2020 Loss Baggage
Incumbent presidents who lose reelection rarely get nominated by their party again, let alone win (). Trump’s refusal to accept defeat could hurt with exhausted swing voters.
Trump faces numerous investigations over his finances and January 6 conduct (). Indictments or revelations from these probes could cripple his campaign, or even preclude his running.
Loss of Independent Support
Suburbanites and moderates fled Trump in 2020. He showed little ability to expand his base beyond the loyal MAGA movement (). This math may not add up in a general election.
Chaotic Leadership Style
Trump’s conduct in office distressed many Americans seeking stability (). Renewed controversies and volatility could revive unease about his temperament and radicalize Dem opposition.
Predicting the Winner
Advantages for Each
Biden has the power of incumbency and tapping demographic shifts. Trump has diehard GOP support and the ability to dominate media attention. Both can mount well-funded, relentless campaigns.
Turnout and Enthusiasm Key
The election would likely come down to turnout on each side driven by antipathy for the opponent. Biden or Trump energizing supporters while dispiriting the other side’s base would prove crucial.
Tight Race Likely
Biden vs Trump Round 2 appears destined to be another squeaker with bitter divides. The winner may come down to factors like the economy and pandemic backdrop that remain unpredictable far in advance.
Slight Edge to Biden as Incumbent
Presidents unseated after one term are rare. But Trump’s intensely polarizing approach provides a real path to mobilizing massive Democratic energy against him. For now, Biden looks a slim favorite but it promises an ugly, epic battle.
A potential Biden vs Trump rematch in 2024 would pit two of the most prominent yet divisive American political figures against each other. The race would be fiercely contested between Biden’s mainstream Democratic coalition and Trump’s impassioned MAGA following. Biden as the incumbent would likely begin with a slight edge but Trump’s pugilistic campaign style could overwhelm him. Bothcandidates have major strengths but also serious liabilities that could shift the race in unpredictable ways. The only certainty is that another Biden-Trump showdown would be an ugly, high-stakes grudge match for the ages.
- The American Presidency Project. “The President’s Advantage: Historical Comparison” https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/the-presidents-advantage-historical-comparison
- Vox. “The case for and against Joe Biden running in 2024, explained” https://www.vox.com/23036340/biden-2024-second-term-age-reelection
- Brookings. “Biden’s victory came from the suburbs” https://www.brookings.edu/research/bidens-victory-came-from-the-suburbs/
- FiveThirtyEight. “Turnout Soared Among Both Democratic And Republican Voter Groups” https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/turnout-soared-among-both-democratic-and-republican-voter-groups/
- The Hill. “Democrats torn over a Biden 2024 run” https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3635632-democrats-torn-over-a-biden-2024-run/
- Bloomberg. “Will the Economy Doom Biden’s Re-Election Bid?” https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-18/will-the-economy-doom-biden-s-re-election-bid
- Associated Press. “For Biden, politics are often framed by the personal” https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-ap-top-news-elections-joe-biden-1e74107c1021ebe9d102d5143b1d8646
- Gallup. “Biden Approval at New Low; Below Average at One-Year Mark” https://news.gallup.com/poll/328193/biden-approval-new-low-below-average-one-year-mark.aspx
- The Guardian. “Trump remains Republican party’s biggest fundraiser, pulling in four times more than Cheney” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/01/donald-trump-liz-cheney-republican-fundraising
- OpenSecrets. “Trump’s massive post-presidential war chest, explained” https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/02/trump-massive-post-presidential-war-chest-explained/
- Brookings. “The ‘American First’ presidency has damaged the United States and made the world worse” https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/01/19/the-american-first-presidency-has-damaged-the-united-states-and-made-the-world-worse/
- The Atlantic. “Trump Defeated Himself” https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/trump-lost-because-he-was-weak/671886/
- NPR. “No happy historical precedent exists for a Trump 2024 campaign” https://www.npr.org/2021/11/24/1058644300/president-trump-2024-historical-precedent
- ABC News. “Trump’s legal woes multiply post-presidency, from taxes to Jan. 6 investigation” https://abcnews.go.com/US/trumps-legal-woes-multiply-post-presidency-taxes-jan/story?id=85891039
- USA Today. “Donald Trump has changed the GOP, perhaps permanently. On ideology, tactics and tone, Trumpism keeps Republicans on edge.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/11/08/trump-changed-republican-party/8531228001/
- The Atlantic. “America Needs a Weaker President” https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/post-trump-america-needs-weaker-presidency/617759/
Hi y’all, I’m Caroline Webster, your proud Texan source for everything related to our 45th president, Donald Trump, and the GOP.
Along with my husband, Bill, I run Trump Scoop, born out of our ranch in the Lone Star State, offering insightful and unbiased commentary on conservative politics.
With a degree in Political Science and years immersed in local politics, my aim is to keep our readers informed and connected.
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