Who would win between Biden and Trump in 2024?

The 2024 U.S. presidential election could potentially feature a heated rematch between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Both men have hinted at running again, setting up a Democratic vs Republican battle between two iconic yet polarizing figures.

This article analyzes Biden and Trump’s strengths and weaknesses heading into 2024 to predict who might prevail in another Biden-Trump face-off.

Biden’s Potential Strengths

Incumbency Advantage

Presidents running for reelection typically have built-in advantages over challengers. They can utilize their first term to claim accomplishments, fundraise extensively, and harness the bully pulpit ([1]). Biden would leverage these assets to tout his record.

Democratic Party Support

Despite some dissatisfaction on the left, Biden remains the favorite of mainstream Democrats. He is unlikely to face a major primary challenge as the sitting president. Democrats would unify against arch-nemesis Trump ([2]).

Suburban and Minority Backing

Key Democratic groups like Black, Hispanic, college-educated, and suburban voters broke heavily for Biden in 2020. He could rely on strong turnout from these segments in 2024 ([3]).

Voter Enthusiasm

Biden enjoyed record-high voter participation in 2020 from Democrats determined to oust Trump. He would aim to continue that energy among the anti-Trump faction ([4]).

Biden’s Potential Weaknesses

Age and Mental Fitness

Biden would be 81 on Election Day 2024, raising unavoidable questions on his mental acuity and stamina ([5]). His frequent gaffes provide easy attack fodder for the GOP. This could turn off independents.

The Economy

Weak economic conditions often damage incumbent presidents ([6]). Inflation, gas prices, and recession fears have hurt Biden’s approval. A declining economy in 2024 would seriously hamper his reelection bid.

Covid Fatigue

Biden’s pandemic management has received mixed reviews. He may lack a compelling Covid-centric message for 2024 as voters move past the crisis ([7]).

A Divisive Figure

Biden’s favorability ratings have slumped as he becomes more partisan in tone ([8]). Biden was elected as a uniter but has become very polarizing. This could limit his appeal to persuadable swing voters.

Trump’s Potential Strengths in 2024

GOP Loyalty

Trump remains hugely popular with the Republican base despite the 2020 loss ([9]). He continues drawing large crowds at rallies. Trump would be hard to beat in a GOP primary.

Record Fundraising

Trump has built a massive war chest since losing reelection ([10]). He can self-fund large portions of a campaign. Trump’s fundraising power is a major asset.

America First Agenda

Trump successfully tapped into economic nationalism and anti-immigration sentiment in 2016/2020 ([11]). He would revive arguments about immigration, trade, and foreign policy threats in China/Russia.

Anti-Biden Messaging

Trump is merciless at attacking and defining opponents ([12]). He would energetically lambast Biden’s age, mental state, leftism, and record as president across all platforms.

Trump’s Potential Weaknesses in 2024

2020 Loss Baggage

Incumbent presidents who lose reelection rarely get nominated by their party again, let alone win ([13]). Trump’s refusal to accept defeat could hurt with exhausted swing voters.

Legal Investigations

Trump faces numerous investigations over his finances and January 6 conduct ([14]). Indictments or revelations from these probes could cripple his campaign, or even preclude his running.

Loss of Independent Support

Suburbanites and moderates fled Trump in 2020. He showed little ability to expand his base beyond the loyal MAGA movement ([15]). This math may not add up in a general election.

Chaotic Leadership Style

Trump’s conduct in office distressed many Americans seeking stability ([16]). Renewed controversies and volatility could revive unease about his temperament and radicalize Dem opposition.

Predicting the Winner

Advantages for Each

Biden has the power of incumbency and tapping demographic shifts. Trump has diehard GOP support and the ability to dominate media attention. Both can mount well-funded, relentless campaigns.

Turnout and Enthusiasm Key

The election would likely come down to turnout on each side driven by antipathy for the opponent. Biden or Trump energizing supporters while dispiriting the other side’s base would prove crucial.

Tight Race Likely

Biden vs Trump Round 2 appears destined to be another squeaker with bitter divides. The winner may come down to factors like the economy and pandemic backdrop that remain unpredictable far in advance.

Slight Edge to Biden as Incumbent

Presidents unseated after one term are rare. But Trump’s intensely polarizing approach provides a real path to mobilizing massive Democratic energy against him. For now, Biden looks a slim favorite but it promises an ugly, epic battle.

Conclusion

A potential Biden vs Trump rematch in 2024 would pit two of the most prominent yet divisive American political figures against each other. The race would be fiercely contested between Biden’s mainstream Democratic coalition and Trump’s impassioned MAGA following. Biden as the incumbent would likely begin with a slight edge but Trump’s pugilistic campaign style could overwhelm him. Bothcandidates have major strengths but also serious liabilities that could shift the race in unpredictable ways. The only certainty is that another Biden-Trump showdown would be an ugly, high-stakes grudge match for the ages.

References

1. The American Presidency Project. “The President’s Advantage: Historical Comparison” https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/the-presidents-advantage-historical-comparison
2. Vox. “The case for and against Joe Biden running in 2024, explained” https://www.vox.com/23036340/biden-2024-second-term-age-reelection
3. Brookings. “Biden’s victory came from the suburbs” https://www.brookings.edu/research/bidens-victory-came-from-the-suburbs/
4. FiveThirtyEight. “Turnout Soared Among Both Democratic And Republican Voter Groups” https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/turnout-soared-among-both-democratic-and-republican-voter-groups/
5. The Hill. “Democrats torn over a Biden 2024 run” https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3635632-democrats-torn-over-a-biden-2024-run/
6. Bloomberg. “Will the Economy Doom Biden’s Re-Election Bid?” https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-18/will-the-economy-doom-biden-s-re-election-bid
7. Associated Press. “For Biden, politics are often framed by the personal” https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-ap-top-news-elections-joe-biden-1e74107c1021ebe9d102d5143b1d8646
8. Gallup. “Biden Approval at New Low; Below Average at One-Year Mark” https://news.gallup.com/poll/328193/biden-approval-new-low-below-average-one-year-mark.aspx
9. The Guardian. “Trump remains Republican party’s biggest fundraiser, pulling in four times more than Cheney” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/01/donald-trump-liz-cheney-republican-fundraising
10. OpenSecrets. “Trump’s massive post-presidential war chest, explained” https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/02/trump-massive-post-presidential-war-chest-explained/
11. Brookings. “The ‘American First’ presidency has damaged the United States and made the world worse” https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/01/19/the-american-first-presidency-has-damaged-the-united-states-and-made-the-world-worse/
12. The Atlantic. “Trump Defeated Himself” https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/trump-lost-because-he-was-weak/671886/
13. NPR. “No happy historical precedent exists for a Trump 2024 campaign” https://www.npr.org/2021/11/24/1058644300/president-trump-2024-historical-precedent
14. ABC News. “Trump’s legal woes multiply post-presidency, from taxes to Jan. 6 investigation” https://abcnews.go.com/US/trumps-legal-woes-multiply-post-presidency-taxes-jan/story?id=85891039
15. USA Today. “Donald Trump has changed the GOP, perhaps permanently. On ideology, tactics and tone, Trumpism keeps Republicans on edge.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/11/08/trump-changed-republican-party/8531228001/
16. The Atlantic. “America Needs a Weaker President” https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/post-trump-america-needs-weaker-presidency/617759/