What Are Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning the 2024 Election?

Donald Trump has strongly hinted he intends to seek the Republican nomination again in 2024 for another shot at the presidency after his 2020 defeat.

But with Joe Biden’s approval struggling, does Trump stand a strong chance of recapturing the White House should he run again?

Evaluating Trump’s prospects requires weighing factors favoring and hindering his hopes for a political comeback.

Introduction

As the 2024 election cycle begins, Donald Trump remains the most influential figure in Republican politics. Since leaving office, Trump has continually raised the possibility of launching another presidential campaign.

Despite his electoral loss in 2020, Trump enjoys enduring strengths that could propel a comeback. But his perpetual controversies also carry significant political baggage that could impede his hopes of reclaiming power.

In this article, we will assess key considerations around Trump’s potential 2024 bid to gauge his likelihood of victory should he become the Republican nominee again.

Strengths Favoring a Trump 2024 Victory

Several dynamics suggest conditions are ripe for Donald Trump to recapture the presidency:

Biden’s Unpopularity

• President Biden has suffered from persistently low approval ratings, currently averaging around 40% [1]. This gives any Republican nominee an upper hand.
• If Biden’s approval remains low entering 2024, he could face either a primary challenge or dampened Democratic voter enthusiasm in the general election [2].

Trump’s Strong GOP Support

• Despite some erosion after January 6th, polls still show Trump with higher favorability among Republican voters compared to other party leaders [3].
• Trump-backed candidates have done well in 2022 GOP primaries, demonstrating his influence over the base [4].
• No singular alternative Republican candidate has emerged to fully displace Trump as frontrunner. The anti-Trump vote could remain divided.

Weak Democratic Candidate Field

• With Biden struggling, Democrats have no obvious youthful successor to take up his mantle in 2024 if he does not run again.
• Rising Democratic stars like Pete Buttigieg or Kamala Harris may not generate the same turnout as seasoned frontrunners Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden [5].
• A fractious Democratic primary could yield a nominee too far left to attract swing voters in the general election.

Trump’s Fundraising Dominance

• Save for transferrable campaign funds, Trump dominates potential Republican rivals in fundraising capability through his PACs [6].
• Small-dollar donor enthusiasm remains high for Trump, ensuring resources to mount a fully-funded campaign [7].

Post-Pandemic Electorate

• With COVID restrictions lifted, conditions around holding rallies and door-knocking are back to normal, playing to Trump strengths [8].
• COVID fatigue may increase voter distrust of Democrat-led restrictions, boosting Trump’s anti-government appeal [9].

Factors Working Against a Trump 2024 Victory

However, Trump also faces considerable headwinds that could doom another race for the White House:

Legal Investigations and Lawsuits

• Trump faces liability in multiple investigations around finances and election tampering that could produce criminal charges [10].
• Even if no charges emerge, continuous legal battles will be used against Trump in campaign attacks.

Loss of Megaphone

• The deplatforming from Twitter and Facebook deprives Trump of key tools that energized his base and drove narratives [11]. Replicating this online dominance elsewhere will be difficult.

History of Losing Popular Vote

• Trump has now lost the popular vote in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, suggesting limited ability to expand his appeal beyond the base [12].
• Shifting demographics and Trump hostility among younger voters also restrict his growth potential.

Fatigue Factor

• Trump has dominated nearly every news cycle since 2015, which could exhaust voters looking for new leadership [13].
• Younger voters with limited attachment to Trump may be eager for a fresh face unburdened by his baggage.

Weaker Electoral Coalition

• Suburban voters and independents who backed Trump in 2016 rejected him in 2020, splitting his winning recipe [14]. It will be difficult to replicate the precise coalition.
• Hispanic voters in places like Arizona and Florida also shifted away from Trump in 2020 [15].

2024 GOP Opposition

• Dissident Republican groups like the Lincoln Project will dedicate resources to preventing a Trump nomination or general election victory [16].
• GOP leaders may become more vocal against Trump if his legal troubles mount or base support continues dropping before 2024.

2024 Election Scenarios

Given these countervailing dynamics, there are a few potential scenarios around Trump’s 2024 electoral fortunes:

Landslide Loss

If Biden gains ground on approval or no longer runs, Trump could face a popular, in-party successor like Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama who paints Trumpism as a threat to democracy and trounces his negative image [17].

Close Loss

Biden squeezes out a narrow Electoral College win as Trump’s base remains loyal but he fails to sway back key swing voter groups like suburban women and independents.

Narrow Win

Biden runs again but his unpopularity enables Trump to reassemble his 2016 map with razor-thin margins in swing states, despite losing the popular vote again.

Challenge for Nomination

Legal woes or declining grassroots support leaves Trump weakened entering the 2024 primaries, allowing an alternative like Ron DeSantis to defeat him for the nomination [18].

Of these outcomes, a close loss to Biden or Democratic successor currently seems the most plausible trajectory given the polarized electorate and Biden’s political struggles. But there remains ample time for dynamics to shift before 2024.

Conclusion

Donald Trump retains a realistic but challenging path back to the White House should he run again in 2024. His enduring base support and fundraising capabilities encourage his ambitions. However, recreating the narrow Electoral College success of 2016 faces considerable obstacles, including legal liabilities, voter fatigue, and demographic shifts. Much depends on the political environment in 2024 and whether Trump can unify Republicans while dispelling corruption allegations. Regardless of the outcome, Trump’s impact on American politics will resonate for decades. But translating his movement into a second term remains far from guaranteed at this stage.

References

[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx

[2] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/25/biden-approval-2024-00046668

[3] https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Donald_Trump

[4] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/08/17/has-trump-lost-his-mojo/

[5] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/trump-biden-2024-election/621165/

[6] https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2022/02/trump-has-more-than-100-million-banked-for-2024/

[7] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-raised-56-million-online-first-half-2021-outpacing-all-rivals-2022-08-01/

[8] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/16/trump-2024-covid-00008760

[9] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/29/heres-what-stands-in-the-way-of-trump-2024

[10] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/15/jan-6-panel-trump-criminal-referral-00039050

[11] https://www.vox.com/recode/22221285/trump-social-media-truth-social

[12] https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54811410

[13] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/trump-biden-2024-election/621165/

[14] https://www.brookings.edu/research/2020-exit-polls-show-a-scrambling-of-democrats-and-republicans-traditional-bases/

[15] https://www.as-coa.org/articles/chart-how-us-latinos-voted-2020-presidential-election

[16] https://lincolnproject.us/

[17] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/20/cherie-westrich-donald-trump-2024-00031476

[18] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-gop-needs-to-do-to-win-in-2024/